Robot Cooks, Robot Hands, and Robot Noses
Metaculus is a website where you can make bets on the future. There are some websites like this, like Polymarket , where you make bets in real money but Metaculus isn't like that - generally the only thing at state is one's pride and what you can learn from the collective wisdom of everybody making predictions on a question. I say generally because occasionally someone will bankroll a tournament on some questions they're particularly interested in getting good predictions for, I'll hopefully have another blog post on one of these soon, but that's very much the exception. Sometimes it's fun to look through the predictions I've made and see where I most disagree with everyone else. For me the top entry is my optimism about robots compared to the rest of the site. Here I am giving robotic cooks by 2030 67% percent odds when most other people have it at 25%. Why am I so optimistic here? Mostly because robotic foundation models have been making great str...